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| Registros recuperados: 19 | |
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| Guo, Qing-chun; He, Zhen-fang; Li, Li; Kong, Ling-jun; Zhang, Xiao-yong; Kou, Li-qun. |
| According to the related data affecting the peasants’ income in China in the years 1978-2008, a total of 13 indices are selected, such as agricultural population, output value of primary industry, and rural employees. According to standardized method and BP neural network method, the peasants’ income and the artificial neural network model are established and analyzed. Results show that the simulation value agrees well with the real value; the neural network model with improved BP algorithm has high prediction accuracy, rapid convergence rate and good generalization ability. Finally, suggestions are put forward to increase the peasants’ income, such as promoting the process of urbanization, developing small and medium-sized enterprises in rural areas,... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: BP Neural Network; Peasants’ income; Forecast; China; Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113491 |
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| Taylor, Richard D.; Koo, Won W.. |
| This report evaluates the 2002 farm bill and the effects of the individual programs within the bill on North Dakota net farm income. A stochastic simulation model was developed, using @Risk by Palisade. @Risk replaces the mean values for price and yield with a distribution of values for the eight major commodities grown in North Dakota. The counter-cyclical (target price) program, marketing loan program, and federal crop insurance benefits were separated and analyzed to determine which components were the most important to North Dakota producers. The U.S. Trade Representative offered to decrease the country's trade distorting subsidies by 60% if the European Union would lower its export subsidies 75%. The study estimates the impact of that plan.... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Net farm income; Risk; Farm bill; North Dakota; Forecast; Domestic subsidies; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/23524 |
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| Couvelard, Xavier; Messager, Christophe; Penven, Pierrick; Smet, Sébastien; Lattes, Philippe. |
| The oceanic circulation south of Africa is characterised by a complex dynamics with a strong variability due to the presence of the Agulhas current and numerous eddies. This area of interest is also the location of several natural gas fields under seafloor which are targeted for drilling and exploitation. The complex and powerful ocean currents induces significant issues for ship operations at the surface as well as under the surface for deep sea operations. Therefore, the knowledge of the state of the currents and the ability to forecast them in a realistic manners could greatly enforce the safety of various marine operation. Following this objective, an array of HF radar systems were deployed to allow a detailed knowledge of the Agulhas currents and its... |
| Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: 4DVAR; Agulhas current; HF radar; ROMS; Forecast. |
| Ano: 2021 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00677/78929/81299.pdf |
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| Cassuce, Francisco Carlos da Cunha; Mattos, Leonardo Bornacki de; Campos, Antonio Carvalho. |
| The present work looked for to show the influence of nominal variable in the determination of nominal exchange rate R$/USS. For this, the model of the parity of the tax of interests was used, ally to the monetary market. It was looked, also, to foresee the tax of exchange rate R$/USS, until December of 2005. For reaching such objectives, the equations of the system had been obtained by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results had shown that the nominal variable are very important to determinate the exchange rate and that the model of parity of the tax of interests, ally to the monetary market is confirmed for the Brazilian case in the period of analysis (jan/1999 to dez/2004). This conclusion is made on the basis of the high capacity of... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Exchange; Forecast; Brazil; International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55311 |
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| Men, Ke-pei; Zhu, Shu-dan; Zhao, Kai. |
| According to the latest revised agricultural economic statistical data in China Statistical Yearbook-2010, by selecting and establishing the square root-treated grey model, the empirical analysis and forecast research on the grain output of China from 201 1 to 2015 are conducted. The results show that me grain output of China in 2011 will reach 557.739 million tons, and it will break through 600 million tons at 605.617 million tons in 2015. The persistent and stable grain output will ensure that the national economy develops in normal during the twelfth five-year plan period and remit the world grain crisis efficiently; meanwhile, the problem of exorbitant grain prices should be remitted in some level. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: China grain production; Square root-treated grey model; Forecast; China; Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/117254 |
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| Wu, Feng; Guan, Zhengfei. |
| Accurately forecasting volatility at distant horizons is critical for managing long-term risk in agriculture. Given the poor performance of GARCH-type models at long-term volatility forecast, we develop a risk-adjusted implied volatility, which adjust the risk-neutral implied volatility by correctly accounting for the volatility risk premium. The paper evaluates the performance of the new implied volatility in the corn futures market relative to two alternative forecasts- a three-year moving average forecast and a naïve forecast. The finding from the study is that the new implied volatilities have at least as well as or stronger predictive power than alternative predicting approaches. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risk-neutral; Volatility risk premium; Forecast; Corn options; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61316 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.; Garcia, Philip. |
| This study investigates the predictability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative market and time-series forecasts. The findings suggest that predictive performance of the outlook hog price forecasts can be improved substantially. Under RMSE, VARs estimated with Bayesian procedures that allow for some degree of flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Forecast; Futures; Models; Prices; Time-series; Vector autoregression; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37620 |
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| Silva, Roberta Bessa Veloso; Ferreira, Daniel Furtado; Safadi, Thelma. |
| This piece of work was carried out objectifying to adjust the time series models to the series of price indexes for the consumer ( PIC ) of Lavras MG. It aimed at verifying the occurrence of differences in trend as for the period which preceeded, as well as for the one which succeeded the Plano Real, and if there was a simple linear trend along with Plano Real ( 1994-1999 ) as well as if any seasonality occurred. It also objectified to comparing the series of both Lavras and the Federal District. It was verified that there was no trend along the whole series, nor there was any seasonality, notwithstanding the fact that a level change occurred, which was characterized as an intervention, rather than a trend. It was necessary to fit a model featuring an... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Price index to the consumer; Trend; Seasonality; Forecast. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43355 |
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| Colino, Evelyn V.; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy of outlook forecasts relative to futures prices in hog and cattle markets. Published forecasts from four prominent livestock outlook programs are available for analysis. Most of the series begin in the mid- to late-1970s and end in 2006. Root mean squared error (RMSE) comparisons indicate, with one exception, no meaningful differences in forecast accuracy between outlook forecasts and futures prices. The null hypothesis that futures prices encompass outlook forecasts is rejected in 9 of 11 cases for hogs and 7 of 8 cases for cattle, clearly indicating that outlook forecasts provide incremental information not contained in futures prices. The magnitude of decline in RMSE from... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Cattle; Encompassing; Forecast; Futures price; Hogs; Outlook; RMSE. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37577 |
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| Cheng, Ge; Yue, Xian-ping. |
| According to the 2000-2010 Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook, per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province in the years 2001-2009 are analyzed starting from the ecological footprint model. Per capita ecological deficit is measured, as well as the pressure index of ecological footprint in order to judge the grade of ecological security and to objectively evaluate the ecological security of Jiangsu Province. GM(1,1) grey forecasting model is used to forecast the ecological security of Jiangsu Province in the years 2010-2014. Research shows that in the next 5 years, both the per capita ecological footprint and the pressure index of ecological footprint will increase by 4% and 3.7% each year, respectively. And the... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Ecological footprint; Ecological security; Jiangsu Province; Forecast; GM（1，1）; China; Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/113482 |
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| Men, Ke-pei; Zhao, Kai. |
| According to the latest amended agricultural economic statistical data from 1996 to 2009 in Henan Statistical Yearbook-2010，by selecting and establishing the optimized grey model of logarithmic new developed coefficient, we conduct the empirical analysis and forecast research on the grain output and the relevant main economic indices in Henan Province from 2010 to 2015. The results show that the grain output of Henan Province in 2010 will reach 54.8969 million tons, and it will break through 60 million tons at 60.17 million tons in 2015. In years ahead, the grain output of Henan Province will develops to a new stage steadily, which guarantees the national grain supply and socio-economic sustainable development forcibly. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Henan Province; Grain production; Grey model of LNDC; Forecast; China; Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/108398 |
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| Bogdanov, Andrej; Petuchova, Tamara. |
| This study explores trends and perspectives of Lithuania’s trade in agricultural and food products with the BRIC countries. Agriculture is one of the priority sectors of Lithuania’s economy and plays an important economic and social role. The share of agricultural and food products within the overall foreign trade of Lithuania is significant, and exports to the BRIC countries account for nearly one third of the Lithuanian agricultural and food products exports. BRICs economic development and growing population leads to the increasing food consumption. The potential of these markets is attractive for Lithuania’s foreign trade. Therefore, consideration of trade flow in food and agricultural products between Lithuania and the BRIC countries is currently very... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Foreign trade in agricultural and food products; Econometric model; Forecast; Lithuania; BRIC; Agribusiness; F17; F47. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/115531 |
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| Registros recuperados: 19 | |
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